After the Soviet Union had fallen, the Russian economy was in shambles, whereas the United States was the world’s only remaining superpower. Many areas of goodwill had already begun to emerge, and many believed the Cold War was over. The United States had little to fear from the new Russian government, but was this also true of Russia? Though the Warsaw Pact was had been dissolved, NATO remained, and in fact would begin expanding through old Warsaw Pact members. In recent years, nuclear arms talks would end. The United States would abandon the Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty, and would not only begin building a ballistic missile shield in the United States, but in Eastern Europe as well. In response, the Russian Federation withdrew from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. Many have asserted that this is the beginning of a new cold war. But what is a cold war? What actually makes tensions into a cold war, and is it possible to stop it?
Sunday, January 27, 2008
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Well, I mean the definition of Cold War is easy. A state of political and military tension between two rival factions. Brief, but not all-inclusive, I know. I really believe that the only difference between tensions between Venezuela, for example, and a "Cold War" with Russia is the possibility for military conflict. No one as afraid that Hugo Chavez is going to bomb Hawaii. Stalin though...
As for the current situation, we have pushed aside or ignored every agreement we ever made with Russia, for no better reason than we believed that they could no longer exert any influence to the contrary. While I do not intend to debate on Putin's new government, Russia herself has been getting back into shape, and with our policy towards the country, you can hardly blame her for flexing some of her new found muscle.
Our current relations with Russia are a natural outgrowth of the discovery that she does not intend to be a third world country forever. Go figure. A couple more years any we will have to deal with Russia as we deal with the EU, or face serious political repercussions.
A new "Cold War" however would include military tensions, and the threat of real war. The face of war has changed in the last 30 years though. Full scale warfare across the face of Europe and the Pacific theater has been replaced by low intensity warfare in the Middle East and Africa. A-bombs have been replaced by tactical nuclear weapons. Carpet bombing has been replaced by precision guided munitions. Occupation garrisons have been replaced by peacekeeping forces. The world has gone and changed since the Cold War, and while we may someday again fight over influence in smaller countries, there will have to be another fundamental shift in warfare before I begin worrying about another "Cold War".
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