Growing Tensions in Pakistan

Of course, all the news media have been covering that Benazir Bhutto's husband and son have become the new Co-Chairmen of the Pakistan People's Party. Much more importantly is what the PPP has been saying (italics added):

The PPP's new leadership indicated yesterday that the party, seared by the tragedy, has now become a formidable enemy to the embattled Mr. Musharraf. "Cooperation with him is out of the question now," said Taj Haider, a senior PPP official and former senator. "What we are doing is accusing Gen. Musharraf of murdering Benazir Bhutto." ...

Harnessing suspicions of government involvement has become the key campaign plank of the PPP ahead of the national election Jan. 8 that is set to install a new prime minister to share power with Mr. Musharraf. The issue of Islamist extremism has virtually disappeared from the public debate. ...

The party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif -- which just two days ago declared it would boycott the election -- indicated yesterday that it will take part in the vote if PPP also participates. ...

In contrast, Mr. Musharraf's allies -- until now the most vocal backers of the Jan. 8 election -- have started to call for a delay. ...

PPP officials yesterday cautioned against any moves to prevent the Jan. 8 vote from occurring on schedule. ...

Should the government embark on this path, he added, the PPP will respond "on the streets," with massive unrest.

- Wall Street Journal (italics added)

Even if Musharraf had nothing to do with Bhutto's assassination, he now finds himself in a no win situation. Even before Bhutto's assassination, the January 8 elections were going to be seen as less than legitimate because the state of emergency was only lifted on December 15 (- BBC South Asia). And now his own supporters are pressuring him to 'postpone' them. Both will undoubtedly lead to further unrest and lead us all further from the goal of containing the Al Qaida and Taliban forces.

Nawaz Sharif on Bhutto's Assassination

"Pakistani opposition leader Nawaz Sharif announced Thursday his party was boycotting next month's elections following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. He demanded that President Pervez Musharraf resign immediately.

"The holding of fair and free elections is not possible in the presence of Pervez Musharraf. After the killing of Benazir Bhutto, I announce that the Pakistan Muslim League-N will boycott the elections," Sharif told a news conference, referring to his party. . . "I demand that Musharraf should quit immediately," he said. "Musharraf is the cause of all the problems. The federation of Pakistan cannot remain in tact in the presence of President Musharraf." "

- Seattle Times, NPR 2pm newscast

This warrants very close international attention.

News on the Arctic Corridor

"Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modeling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years..." - BBC Science News

If true, this will have very interesting international ramifications. It will be interesting to watch Russia and Canada on this in the coming years.

Addendum-

"Only days after a Russian submarine planted a flag on the seabed at the North Pole, Stephen Harper, the Prime Minister of Canada, announced plans for new military bases in Canada’s Northwest Territories..." -London Times

Pakistan and Benazir Bhutto

"Ms Bhutto had just addressed an election rally in Rawalpindi when she was shot in the neck by a gunman who then set off a bomb..." - BBC South Asia News

This is disappointing in so many ways. First of course it is a human tragedy, but this is a marker of how bad things have gotten in Pakistan. Let's consider for a moment what has been happening there lately.

The Taliban and Al Qaida have been growing their influence near the border with Afghanistan, and have made several major terrorist attacks in the past few months. The Pakistani military (which is supposedly headed by Musharraf) has been routed, so the US has been funding a questionable militia of local tribal members known as the "Frontier Corps" (-Foreign Policy). The New York Times reports that more than five billion dollars in US aid to Pakistan "more than five billion dollars in US aid to Pakistan has often never reached the military units it was intended for to fight Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and was instead diverted to other programs" (- Yahoo News). Musharraf imposed martial law to keep himself in power by imprisoning supreme court justices who were going to judge his continued rule unconstitutional (- BBC South Asia). And now one of Musharraf's main opponents is killed, assumably by Al-Qaeda linked terrorists.

Questions will be asked if Musharraf was involved, whether members of the Pakistani military (the most powerful group in Pakistan) were involved. Right now we don't know the answer to this; we probably will never know for sure. In the short term we need to closely watch Musharraf, not for what he says, but for what he does to react.

However one thing is certain, the clear losers are all those who had hoped for a democratic Pakistan.

Thesis Statement - Getting Back from the Point of No Return

By any accord, the first decade of the twenty-first century has been a turbulent one in international relations. This is especially true for the United States, not because of, but rather despite of the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Initially after the terrorist attacks 2001 the world stood in solidarity with the United States and offered their support, but since this support has begun to dry (further explain and cite). The United States engaged itself in two wars, stressing the US military, some say to the breaking point (further explain and cite). During these two wars, many of the United States' closest allies from the Cold War, including NATO, England and Japan, have slowly distanced themselves from the United States' foreign policy. The US dollar has weakened against all major currencies, and its foreign trade deficit has spiraled out of control, and tensions have begun to rise with many of its old rivals including Russia and China.

With each of these in mind, US foreign policy finds itself at a point of
the beginning of the twenty-first century has seen a major decline in the international influence and power of the United States. As of late, there has been a temptation to place blame for this loss, but this point is counter-productive. There will be dire consequences if the United States continues to loose its influence into the next decade, and placing blame will not improve this situation. But this danger masks a great opportunity. In this atmosphere, the world will be very sensitive to changes in American foreign policy. Thus small changes during this time period will have the opportunity to make their largest impact on the international scene because solving many of the problems will also also improve American relations with the other world governments.

There are many places where this opportunity could be used, but the much of this effort should be focused where it would do the most good. Bearing this in mind two things must be taken into account: where the United States could make the most improvement, and where the building of stronger international connections would not adversely effect America's relations with other older allies. The Russian Federation fits this profile perfectly. It is the only member of the G8 which the United States considers a military rival. In addition, unlike the tensions between China and Taiwan, there is no country that would directly find normalization between Russia and the United States threatening. Though there are many issues of contention between the United States and Russia, and each of these issues can be solved to the satisfaction and betterment of both the United States and Russia.

Introduction

I am an International Relations student currently working on my Master's thesis. Both in my thesis research and in my normal life I pay a lot of attention to world politics, and occasionally come up with gems of interesting information. Rather than selfishly keeping these notes to myself, I've decided to post them here.